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Украинские власти делают серьезную ставку на уголь. Во-первых, «черное золото» рассматривают как альтернативу дорогому российскому газу. А во-вторых, растущая экономика увеличит его потребление. Но нарастить добычу угля сейчас не представляется возможным без инвестиций в модернизацию шахт.

На прошлой неделе правительство подало в парламент два главных документа страны: Госбюджет на 2012 год и Госпрограмму экономического и социального развития Украины на следующий год. Согласно последнему документу, Кабмин прогнозирует, что украинские потребители существенно увеличат использование угля в своих нуждах.

Так, спрос на уголь на внутреннем рынке страны в следующем году составит 72 млн. тонн против ожидаемого 65,2 млн. тонн в 2011 году. Резко подскочит потребление со стороны украинских тепловых электростанций и теплоэлектроцентралей – на 30%, до 41,4 млн. тонн. Увеличится спрос и со стороны других категорий потребителей: самих угольщиков, населения, коммунально-бытовых организаций, потребителей обл- и госадминистраций, предприятий транспорта и связи и т.д.

При этом, как ожидает правительство, на фоне роста внутреннего потребления существенно сократится экспорт угля – более чем в 2 раза (на 2,56 млн. тонн), до 2,24 млн. тонн.

Такие планы правительства четко ложатся в русло недавних заявлений лидеров Украины о замене дорого российского газа украинским углем. Например, премьер-министр Николай Азаров сообщил, что официальный Киев планирует в 3 раза сократить закупки «голубого топлива» у Москвы. По словам министра энергетики и угля Юрия Бойко, в следующем году НАК «Нефтегаз» планирует приобрести у «Газпрома» только 27 млрд. куб. м газа по сравнению с 40 млрд. куб. м. в 2011 году.

А под задачу президента Виктора Януковича нарастить ежегодную добычу угля до 100 млн. т Минэнергоуголь уже даже разработало проект «Программы перспективного развития угольной отрасли на среднесрочный период до 2015 г.», согласно которой к 2015 г. украинский углепром должен выйти на уровень добычи в 92 млн. т в год, а с 2015 по 2020 гг. - до 100 млн. т. К 2030 г. уровень добычи ожидается на уровне 115 млн. т.

Однако текущая ситуация в углепроме не настолько радужная, как на бумаге и в заявлениях высших должностных лиц государства. Отрасль просто задыхается без инвестиций в основной капитал. Так, пять лет подряд стагнируют производственные показатели украинских шахт, которые не могут превысить показатель добычи в 80 млн. т. Характерно, что Кабмин прогнозирует добычу угля в 2012 году на уровне 86,63 млн. тонн.

Причем, стоит отметить, что показатели отрасли вытягивают частные шахты, тогда как государственные угольные объединения остаются крайне неэффективными. Например, в 2010 г., по данным Минэнергоугля, госшахты удержали добычу на уровне 2009 г. в 38,5 млн. т угля. В то же время частные и арендные угледобывающие предприятия нарастили этот показатель почти на 9%, до 36,8 млн. т.

Ситуацию усугубляет отсутствие средств у государства на модернизацию мощностей шахт. В том же проекте бюджета на 2012 г. на эти цели опять выделены «сущие копейки», а за последние пять лет государственные инвестиции в отрасль только раз дотянули до 500 млн. грн.

Это, в свою очередь, накладывает отпечаток на проблему промышленной безопасности на шахтах. Летние трагические происшествия и гибели горняков – яркий пример того, что оборудование давно устарело, его износ превысил все разумные пределы и по отдельным предприятиям доходит до 80%.

В результате Государственной службе горного надзора и промышленной безопасности (Госгорпромнадзор) приходится запрещать работу устаревших мощностей, что естественно негативно влияет на уровень добычи. Так, по состоянию на 19 сентября Госгорпромнадзор запретил эксплуатацию 113 металлических и 14 башенных копров из-за нарушения требований охраны труда и промышленной безопасности. Помимо этого, Служба выявила девять случаев эксплуатации аварийных копров.

В такой ситуации, когда приватизация предприятий отрасли фактически заблокирована, а инвестиции уже нужны «на вчера», концессия является основным инструментом, который позволит быстро и на долгий срок привлечь средства в те перспективные угольные предприятия, которые наиболее остро нуждаются в развитии.

«Концессия сама по себе очень выгодный для государства инструмент. По сути, при концессии государство передает во временное пользование частному капиталу некий национальный объект. А по истечении концессии, государство вместо простаивающего объекта получает эффективно работающий бизнес», - говорит эксперт аудиторской компании Kreston GCG Александр Куксин.

Например, по его словам, при передаче концессионеру права на эксплуатацию угольного месторождения, на выходе концедент получает работающую шахту. «Главное преимущество концессии в том, что она, в отличие от аренды, возлагает на концессионера обязательства, выгодные для государства», - отмечает эксперт.

В правительстве видимо поняли, что медлить уже нельзя, и начали поиск концессионера для двух крупнейших государственный предприятий «Ровенькиантрацита» и «Свердловантрацита». По словам члена комитета Верховной рады по вопросам промышленной и регуляторной политики и предпринимательства Михаила Чечетова, в данном случае концессия позволяет инвестору проводить долгосрочное планирование. Кроме того, выгода для частника может заключаться в гарантированных поставках топлива, защите внутреннего рынка от импорта и повышении конкурентоспособности шахт.

Стоит отметить, что эти предприятия уже имели опыт государственно-частного партнерства в 2010 году. Так, «Свердловантрацит» привлек у частного инвестора около 260 млн. грн. Это позволило предприятию по результатам года увеличить добычу угля на 600 тыс. т (на 10%) – до 6,4 млн. т. Чтобы обеспечить развитие предприятия в 2012-16 гг., «Свердловантрациту» понадобится более 2 млрд. грн.

Что касается «Ровенькиантрацита», то в 2010 г. при полном отсутствии бюджетного финансирования в рамках договора о государственно-частном партнерстве были привлечены около 300 млн. грн. В результате рост добычи угля на предприятии составил 22% - до 6 млн. т. Чтобы повысить добычу угля к 2016 г. до 7 млн. т, «Ровенькиантрациту» необходимы капитальные инвестиции в размере 2,2 млрд. грн.

Если же предприятиям не удастся привлечь дополнительные частные инвестиции, то наработанная в 2010-11 гг. материальная база постепенно будет ухудшаться, что приведет к падению добычи угля. Более того, шахтам грозят убытки, которые могут достичь миллиарда гривен по каждому предприятию. Перспектива сокращения объемов добычи может привести к резкому дефициту угля антрацитовых марок, который используется на украинских ТЭС.

На прошлой неделе свой интерес к двум предприятиям подтвердила компания Coal Energy S.A., которая выступает одним из ведущих игроков рынка. Летом она провела IPO на Варшавской фондовой бирже, продав 25% акций за $80 млн. В пресс-службе компании сообщили, что уже начали процесс due diligence «Ровенькиантрацита» и «Свердловантрацита» в связи с возможным их взятием в концессию. Также не исключено, что интерес к этим предприятиям проявит и компания «ДТЭК» Рината Ахметова, что сулит государству дополнительные выгоды от конкуренции за право быть концессионером.

Виктор Андреев, специально для «ОстроВ»

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