Китай просит рапса
Опубликовано: 23.11.2011. 15:46
В этом сезоне китайцы увеличат импорт рапса на 41% до 1,8 млн. тонн. Учитывая проблемы наших производителей со сбытом этой культуры в ЕС, можно предположить, что китайский спрос станет спасением
«Национальный информационный центр Китая по вопросам зерна и масел прогнозирует, что в 2011-2012 маркетинговом году страна импортирует 1,8 млн. т рапса. Это больше поставок прошлого сезона на 41%»,— говорят в аналитической компании «ПроАгро». Такое рвение китайцев аналитики объясняют увеличением перерабатывающих мощностей.
Дело в том, что компания COFCO Co. Ltd, крупнейший зернотрейдер Китая, запустила четыре завода по переработке рапса, отчего столкнулась с нехваткой сырья. Суммарная мощность заводов составляет 3 млн. т в год.
«В последние годы переработка рапса снижалась под воздействием ограничений на импорт канадского сырья»,— отмечают в «ПроАгро». Теперь, очевидно, китайские власти решили дать зеленый свет импорту, чтобы заводы не простаивали. Китай давно является одним из наибольших в мире импортеров масличных.
События на китайском масличном рынке, а именно усиление переработки масличных культур, пришлись как нельзя кстати отечественным аграриям. Экспорт рапса идет из рук вон плохо, уверяет аналитик масличных рынков компании «УкрАгроКонсалт» Юлия Гарковенко.
По ее данным, отгрузка масличной из Украины на внешние рынки с июля по октябрь этого года составила предварительно 630 тыс. т. В прошлом сезоне 2010-2011 за этот период экспорт составил 975 тыс. т, а в 2009-2010 — 1,033 млн. т, то есть до нового года был вывезен фактически весь рапс, подлежащий продаже на внешних рынках. Такой низкий показатель экспорта, как сейчас, наблюдается впервые за три последних года. До сих пор традиционным рынком сбыта были для нас страны ЕС, в первую очередь Нидерланды и Германия. На страны еврозоны приходилось 96-98% экспорта. Примерно такой же объем выращенного в Украине рапса подлежал экспорту — в Украине культура перерабатывается исключительно агрохозяйствами для собственных нужд на биодизель.
Падение динамики экспорта госпожа Гарковенко объясняет затовариванием рынков ЕС более дешевым рапсом из Аргентины. «Аргентинские экспортеры сильно перешли дорогу нашим производителям. Мы не можем с ними конкурировать по ценам, которые существенно ниже украинских»,— говорит аналитик. Вторая причина — падение платежеспособности европейских покупателей под влиянием кризиса, а также отсутствие государственной поддержки местных переработчиков. Кроме того, в сложившемся финансовом положении европейцам дешевле приобретать более дешевый готовый продукт — биодизель — из стран Южной Америки.
Теперь, когда европейские покупатели не спешат приобретать нашу продукцию, довольно остро стоит вопрос поиска новых рынков сбыта. И Китай может стать выходом из ситуации с застопорившимся экспортом. Но никто из аналитиков да и самих производителей пока не может сказать точно, насколько возможны такие поставки. Пока это теоретически возможный канал сбыта. И скорее всего, так как покупатель в Китае монополист, речь о более выгодных поставках не идет, потому что он попытается существенно снизить стоимость закупок. Очевидно, что об уровне европейских прайсов мечтать не приходится.
Украина ежегодно производит около 1,5 млн. т рапса, из которых не менее 1,3 млн. т поступает на экспорт.
Максимальная стоимость рапса была отмечена на рынке ЕС, MATIF, Франция 25 февраля 2008 г. Тогда культура выросла в цене до $770,2 за тонну. 30 мая 2011 г. рапс едва не достиг докризисного рекорда. На этих же условиях продажи его цена поднялась до $704,7. С тех пор стоимость рапса опускалась и достигла 18 ноября 2011 г. отметки $567,7, MATIF, Франция.
Естественно, такая динамика не устраивает отечественных производителей и экспортеров, в числе которых крупнейшим игроком на этом рынке является Landkom international. Компания пока не делала каких-либо заявлений по поводу трудностей со сбытом рапса или переориентации экспорта. Статистика посевов говорит о том, что рапс пострадал от осенней засухи точно так же, как и пшеница. Значит, урожая-2012 по рапсу стоит ожидать меньше объемов сезона 2011-2012 — 1,4 млн. тонн.
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