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В ожидании «Конца света – 2012». Взгляд социологов

 

Чем ближе к заветной дате "21.12.12", тем разнообразнее становятся варианты развития событий в этот "последний день человечества". Все интенсивнее нарастает "градус психического напряжения" и, кажется, что опасаться следует не нехватки еды и свечей, а массовой истерии. Сама дата "21 декабря 2012 года" превратилась не только в успешный бренд, но и в интернет-мем, т.е. спонтанно распространившуюся, популярную информацию.

Тема "21.12.12" на днях обсуждалась на очередном заседании Социологического дискуссионного клуба при кафедре философии и социологии ЛНУ имени Тараса Шевченко.

Интернет-мемом может стать не любая информация, а лишь та, которая особо остро привлекает внимание аудитории. Следует заметить, что сценарии "Конца света – 2012" рассчитаны на разнообразные слои населения: существуют как незатейливые варианты, так и особо утонченные.

Широкий ассортимент "страшилок" приводит к тому, что если вас не убедила одна "теория", обязательно убедит другая. При условии, если вы рады обмануться сами. Бесконечный поток информации, струящийся отовсюду: из СМИ, от сослуживцев и домочадцев, друзей, бабушек на остановках, заставляет задуматься обывателя о правдивости грядущих прогнозов.

Для социологов данная ситуация с одной стороны, - любопытный случай, когда изучение природы и механизмов функционирования "управляемого хаоса" даст прирост социологическому знанию. С другой стороны, социологи тоже люди и противостояние сметающему на своем пути потоку неконтролируемого "бреда" порой требует затраты определенных душевных сил.

Ситуация с "концом света" балансирует на грани перехода в "социальную эпидемию", когда здравый смысл отказывает, и в дело вступают эмоции. В таком беззащитном и потерянном состоянии люди подвержены внешнему влиянию в большей степени, чем обычно. Душа требует объединения с собратьями по несчастью. И тут на сцене появляются мошенники, организующие семинары, курсы по преодолению этой "страшной" даты, предлагающие "тематические" товары и услуги. В итоге "конец света" предстает не таким ужасным событием, а весьма привлекательным коммерческим проектом, когда заработать может каждый мало-мальски находчивый человек (не говоря уже про масштабные спецпроекты, например, голливудские фильмы "2012" и "Революция").

Проиллюстрируем сказанное конкретными примерами "концов света" в истории человечества.

Самый первый конец света христианского происхождения был назначен на дату смерти последнего апостола. Это был Иоанн и перед кончиной он написал Откровение уничтожения человечества. Однако даты он не указал, и первые христиане уже тогда начали гадать о конце концов, несмотря на слова другого апостола, Марка: "О дне том, и о часе, не знает никто, ни Ангелы, ни Сын Божий, а лишь Отец". В 666 году ("666 - число зверя") христиане ожидали "конца света" на протяжении всего года. Однако Апокалипсиса так и не дождались. Тогда они начали ждать 999 г., после него 1000 г. (тысяча лет со дня рождения Иисуса Христа), далее 1033 г. (тысячелетие со дня гибели Христа). Нечто похожее на современную ситуацию окончания календаря майя ожидалось в 1492 г., когда заканчивался расчет Пасхалии (т. е. системы расчета Пасхи). Но "конец света" все не наступал и не наступал.

Основная формулировка "Конца света – 2012" – это конец очередного цикла по календарю майя. Исходя из этого, на 21 декабря 2012 года приходится окончание текущего бактуна (цикла в 5125 лет) Эры Пятого Солнца и начало нового. Данный 13-ый бактун начался еще в 3114 г. до н. э. и сейчас подходит к концу. Но значит ли окончание календарного цикла окончание жизни человечества? По этому вопросу нет единого мнения у специалистов в области маянистики. Предположения о катастрофе в конце 13-го бактуна связаны с найденной в Тортугеро на юге штата Табаско (Мексика) полустёртой надписью VII века о том, что в конце бактуна прибудет бог Болон-Йокте, которого майя связывали как с войной, так и актом творения (также он был покровителем застолий). Но следует отметить, что Мексика всячески поддерживает "эзотерический туризм" основанный на пророчествах майя.

Участники дискуссии остановились и на особо "выдающихся" вариантах "конца света". Например, обещают, что 21 декабря исчезнет электричество (в принципе!), и Земля погрузится на несколько дней в полную тьму! Возникает закономерный вопрос: "А по какой причине должно исчезнуть электричество и почему оно не будет работать до 2013 года?" Исчезнут разницы зарядов? Электропроводность металлов? Больше не будет молний? И нейроны головного мозга не смогут обмениваться импульсами?

Этот ничем не обоснованный прогноз исчезновения электричества уже выразился в сериале "Революция" (США, 2012). Спрос рождает предложение! Фильм повествует о событиях через 15 лет после исчезновения электричества, о жизни в мире с луками, кремневыми ружьями и лошадьми. И порождает закономерные вопросы: "С чего вдруг?" и "Почему это на место электрических двигателей не поставили паровые и т.д.?" В общем, тех, кто помнит школьный курс физики, подобные теории удивляют.

Отдельного внимания заслуживают заявления о том, что на несколько дней планета погрузится в полную тьму. С чего бы вдруг? Солнце выключат рубильником? Земля перестанет вращаться и на одном полушарии установится вечная ночь, а на другом вечный день? Посещая различные форумы, посвященные этой тематике, можно найти объяснения, что "Фотонный поток" закроет планету от Солнца. Учитывая, что фотон – частица света, непонятно, как поток частиц света может погрузить планету во тьму и откуда этому потоку взяться.

В общем, ясно, что современное человечество живет в ситуации постоянных опасностей и рисков: плачевное состояние окружающей среды, угрозы стихийных бедствий (землетрясения, ураганы, наводнения и т.д.), нестабильность экономической, политической обстановки – все это поддерживает тревожность в обществе. Но обращать внимание нужно на реальные опасности! А рассмотренные "пророчества" – из области историй о планете Нибиру. О которой продолжают говорить, несмотря на уверения астрономов, что настолько крупное тело уже давно бы было обнаружено, если бы оно должно было приблизиться к Земле в декабре этого года.

Однако, сами предсказания "конца света" при значительной степени интенсивности несут в себе угрозу. Сообщения подобного характера находим на интернет-форумах, где сотни и тысячи людей убеждаются в том, что другие люди всерьез ожидают конца света на основе контактов с "инопланетянами", откровений "лжепророков" и псевдонаучных построений. По своей природе человек всегда ориентируется на общественное мнение, при таком обилии тревожных сообщений большинство даже здравомыслящих людей могут заключить, что "нет дыма без огня". А отсюда недалеко до паники и массового психоза! Особенно опасно это для детской психики, ведь детям сложнее всего отличить "утки", на которых кто-то зарабатывает деньги, от сообщений о реальной опасности.

В качестве примера массового психоза, часто приводится случай радиопостановки по роману Герберта Уэллса "Война миров" (США, 1938), когда более миллиона человек приняли ее за репортажи с места событий. Люди оставляли дома, баррикадировались, звонили в полицию и больницы, многие клялись и божились, что сами были очевидцами высадки "марсиан" и применения ими оружия, и это не смотря на то, что работники радио три раза объявляли о том, что это радиопостановка по мотивам романа.

Кроме того, ожидание "квантового перехода", когда внезапно все само по себе станет хорошо, очень напоминает печальный анекдот про реалистический вариант достижения благополучия "когда инопланетяне прилетят и нам помогут".

Таким образом, в сложившейся ситуации необходимо стараться мыслить критично, не поддаваясь волне "массовой истерии". Ограничить себя в стихийной скупке свечей, топлива и прочих "полезных" при "конце света" ресурсов.

И да прибудет с вами здравый смысл!

  Маргарита Живилова, Ольга Петренко, Александр Холмаков, специально для  Ostrovok

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Trina Turk Designs iPhone 5 iPad Mini Cases – Trina Turk Kindle Phone Cases ELLE
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Will not wait for Thursday, bye: Immediately after meeting while using Roman attorney, choose Turati head office Alegre discover Galliani. Deputy Notepad seriously isn't that meeting, the discipline unilaterally simply "accidental meeting", the discipline considered bewildered, rather stressed to be able to recognition the something like 20 days and nights to be able to implement: Chief executive possesses advised not necessarily make contact with utilizing their mass media persons (Bies Cady) announced the learning change on television system, [url=http://english.ipp.ac.cn/soccerjerseys.html]cheap soccer jerseys online[/url] failed to produce virtually any report on the rumors Seedorf, without using Milan insider learn over their particular. They ended up being a bit remain, requiring Milan easily to the enjoyment connected with terms. They have tough lure failed to anticipate ended up being the tough deny, Galliani reported previous to, that must hold out until eventually Thursday the outcomes, yet happens to be not possible to be able to discuss vitality (Allegri a further season contract), along with simply immediately after the Winners Little league qualifier, can provide renewed for just one season as an alternative to eighteen months Allegri, which often developed on the conclusion that will they continue being inside company. [url=http://english.ipp.ac.cn/soccerjerseys.html]cheap soccer jerseys[/url] After that, over the past few Galliani repair along with retention of a discipline: "You can certainly hit on the Roman team release, plans if slow down, the team may fully cooperate, will be no issue. " Means conveniently surrender, will not yank Discipline journey put together with 1 / 3 blowout. As well as the full change inside frame of mind, Allegri Milan displaced the third distinct security. Even so, Allegri were right away recognised Ancient rome, take great pride in driven your pet to not admit surrender, to manage questioning specifically if the Chief executive, to be able to recover his standing, even though the keep must obtain the suitable compensation. The reason why the Roman draping desires for food, therefore Ancient rome until eventually Wednesday, the purpose seriously isn't inside speaks along with Berlusconi still left to deal with, not necessarily his betrayal previous to use the meaning high surface, the older artillery system to the bull's-eye connected with arrest judgment.

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What Everyone’s Saying About Kanye ELLE
What Everyone’s Saying About [url=http://uk-karendresses.co.uk/]http://uk-karendresses.co.uk/[/url] KanyeMarch 9 5:49 PMby [url=http://sunglassesfactory.net/]cheap oakley sunglasses[/url] Britt Aboutaleb 0 Comments Photo: Getty Images Among the other topics dominating Paris Fashion Week—Jil Sander, Raf Simons, YSL, Dior—there was Kanye West. Would people go to his show? Would the clothes be any better? Would he keep on trying? The answer to all three was yes (though there's some debate on number two). Plenty of people went to both his 9:30PM show (late, even by Paris standards) and his afterparty. Both serious editors and buyers as well as West's friends like Jay-Z, Alicia Keys, P Diddy. Rosario Dawson, Common and Mos Def sat front row.  Conspicuously missing, however, were the designers who so enthusiastically showed up to support West's debut effort last September: Azzedine Alaïa, Dean and Dan Caten, Olivier Theyskens, Jeremy Scott, Delfina Delettrez Fendi and the Olsens.  Instead, there's just one other designer's name being bandied about:  Riccardo Tisci.  Yesterday, the Post reported the spread of Parisian gossip [url=http://sunglassesfactory.net/]discount ray ban sunglasses[/url] about the rapper's close friendship with the Givenchy designer.   Tisci worked with West and Jay on last year's Watch the Throne and has recently vacationed with West, but is he helping West design clothes?  Probably not.  Tisci's influence can be felt in nearly every collection that Phoebe Philo's can't. As for the critical [url=http://sunglassesfactory.net/]discount oakley sunglasses[/url] reviews of West's fall collection, no one actually name checked Givenchy.  Here's a roundup of what they did say: Eric Wilson, The New [url=http://uk-karendresses.co.uk/]karen millen dresses[/url] York Times "After a debut collection that was a critical flop last fall, Kanye West resumed his fashion career in Paris on Tuesday [url=http://uk-karendresses.co.uk/]http://uk-karendresses.co.uk/[/url] night, picking up right where he left off, with a spectacle of slinky dresses, leather pants that didn't quite fit, furry peplums, broadtail stretch pants, some souped-up go-karts and Kim Kardashian. Well, at least that was an improvement." Luke Leitch, The Telegraph "The collection? Well, it was no hit – but neither was hit with a capital S." Tim Blanks, Style.com "He reduced his first collection's profligacy to a more concise statement in leather, velvet, and astrakhan, most often in black and always wrapping a legging or pencil-skirted lean silhouette. It was a declaration that West is learning self-discipline in design." Jess Cartner-Morley, The Guardian "Kanye West not only loves fashion, but has an impressive instinct for the catwalk zeitgeist. This show included almost every major trend from next autumn's collections: black leather, velvet, high necklines, crocodile effect, and influences from sportswear, gothic and baroque aesthetics. It did not however make a strong case for West's possession of an original point of view on the season's trends. No one doubts that Kanye West genuinely loves fashion, but for the moment the passion remains unrequited." Tags: tim Blanks Luke Leitch Eric Wilson Jess Cartner-Morley Kanye West

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Rome's urging, sincerity along with by design avoid the older spend, rental the mass media hoopla Seedorf quicker Allegri action. Allegri along with Galliani previous Sunday Turati head office inside approximately three a long time sipping caffeine, along with reported [url=http://wholesalesoccerjerseyschina.com/]wholesale soccer jerseys from china[/url] "the U . s along with the nation take pleasure in various caffeine, " on Thursday night with each other reviewing the Winners Little league ultimate during Wembley, they should the discipline in addition continue being along with excellent illusions, and also is included with the Vice-renewal. Last week, almost all the time, Italian Tumbler Harding Area, drop, drop Tumbler, skipped the next consecutive season, the battle inside The eu "American-style Roman" vowed to be able to convert with a repentant longer retain Enrique, Zeman that journey style of insecurity discipline. Common boss Baldini along with Physical activities Sabatini comprehensive Chen to the U. S. major Xipaluota Allegri many advantages, boss nodded, previous one sounded the clarion Kuanggong Allegri. That will night, which is, to be able to Galliani Baldini play to be able to name, greeting aside, the concentrate could be to demand release, yet that cellular phone will be Milan technically said. Sabatini in addition name Allegri, reiterated Rome were that will they failed to have the frame of mind: [url=http://wholesalesoccerjerseyschina.com/]thailand soccer jerseys from china[/url] "You are not simply the 1st decision, its really the only decision you'll find zero Plan B. " Morning that will week, Allegri's attorney Paul Luo appeared inside Deira location connected with Rome, brazenly along with Sabatini found a couple of a long time from the resort. "Gazzetta dello Sport activity, " the disclosure, both the sides on two-year contract, after-tax yearly salary connected with three. a few mil euros from the 3 rd season include important agenda right to choose, dependant upon the document along with funds awards offered simple terms connected with arrangement, simply not universally known Allegri handwritten signature bank. "Corriere dello Sport" on the contract there may be one way: 3-year yearly salary connected with three. 7 mil. In those days, the engaging gatherings there's a mental arrangement, restrained Allegri closed inside 24 a long time, which is previous to Sunday, if not the contract will be broken. Roma desire to step at once to be able to induce Allegri fail may perhaps hereafter showed quite possibly continue to in such a really like triangle is a most somewhat insecure, based Allegri wink.

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This quick, Mourinho can usher throughout his or her very last adventure for Authentic The country coach employment, and also presents itself within the media when called he'll inevitably with Chelsea future year, although vice chief executive Basa Bilal Ruby believes Mourinho are going to be a disaster throughout Chelsea. Bilal Ruby said: "this (Mourinho) with Britain basketball is just not great. Chelsea may possibly feel he has delivered great occasions, although you've got a appear today Authentic Madrid's Mourinho. [url=http://socceryi.weebly.com]wholesale football jerseys free shipping[/url] In the event his or her Chelsea however serves including throughout The country that could exclusively produce unhappiness, a disaster. With his or her age he to never switch. Vice chairman of the Barcelona this morning decide to put Mourinho for you to leave Authentic The country referred to as "attached towards The spanish language basketball confront disaster quit. " Bilalubi continuing: "my job is just not mainly because they're this coach opponents, happens because with his or her this doings. His or her three years throughout The country exclusively delivered dissimilarities, issue, simply no positive. You possibly can by enjoying basketball, spectacle, theater study good stuff, he (Mourinho) wouldn't bring a bit of good, simply no positive stability. By him When i who is able to definitely not find a bit of good stuff, not at all. Sports could possibly be I have simply no to talk, although from your personal aspect, he was a disaster, [url=http://socceryi.weebly.com]cheap soccer jerseys[/url] in combination with his or her numerous serves with hostility for coach Basa, he made this surroundings, and the gambler contact and also conference are way too terrible, I'm delighted to see him move, everybody The spanish language basketball can be feel hence. " This 59 : year-old banker's notion is to straighten away the connection concerning Barcelona and also worldwide, he represents this established words, Mourinho throughout business office soon after his or her operate difficult many. Bilal Ruby as well spoke of the real adventure: "he (Mourinho) with Authentic The country soon after per annum including we would enjoy 8-10 games with these, most of us every single glass are moved for you to them. When i pretty including and also Authentic The country and also Authentic The country chief executive, my own great rapport. Although when Mourinho operate hard, always be vulnerable by means of growing downturn individuals commit ourselves. My own liability is to unusual contact, each and every time most of us achieved, Mourinho would likely declare a thing, after which within the paper can be referred to as a new war. "

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Whitney Port, Kelly [url=http://savebigshopping.com/]coach factory[/url] Bensimon: Coke Addicts ELLE
Whitney Port, Kelly Bensimon: Coke AddictsMay 25 4:30 PMby Hayley Phelan 0 Comments Photo: Assouline There's hardly an accessory more classic–or more American–than a cold, refreshing bottle of Coca-Cola. Last night, Assouline held a party to celebrate their new book commemorating all of Coke's many faces–from sports drink to Pop Art muse–that we've come to know over the past 125 years. The book is filled with beautiful, illustrated vintage ads from the '20s, cool contemporary campaigns and photos of virtually everyone from Muhammad Ali to JFK to Naomi Campbell sippin' on the world's most iconic soft drink. Whitney Port and Kelly Bensimon were on hand to celebrate the launch, mingling with guests in the stark lobby of the Frank Gehry-designed IAC building, admiring the book's pages blown up on the world's largest video screen (seriously, it holds the record), and of course, enjoying the free Coca-Cola drinks. "I know I'm not supposed to drink diet coke because I'm supposed to be all healthy [url=http://savebigshopping.com/]coach factory online[/url] but I drink a lot of it." Bensimon confided to ELLE. "Okay I'm not talking caseloads by the day or anything," she clarified (with about as much hyperactive energy as some one who might drink a caseload), "But definitely one [url=http://savebigshopping.com/]coach factory outlet[/url] or two with lunch." And what pretell does the self-described health nut like to eat with her coke? "I'm from the Midwest, okay, I like to have my coke with french fries." Whitney Port's quite the Coke addict too, it turns out. "I probably have five a week," she said, but was quick to clarify, "I only drink Coke Zero's though." And she too, likes her soft drinks with a side of "anything fried. That's my biggest indulgence." I guess we have more in common with Bensimon and Port (and their diets) than we thought, which was a point that Coca-Cola was keen to emphasize last night. Among the many images the brand showcased in their new book and splashed across the video screen last night, was a famous Andy Warhol quote: "You can be watching TV and see Coca-Cola, and you know that the President drinks Coke, Liz Taylor drinks Coke, and just think, you can drink Coke, too. A Coke is a Coke [url=http://savebigshopping.com/]coach factory outlet[/url] [url=http://savebigshopping.com/]http://savebigshopping.com/[/url] and no amount of money can get you a better Coke than the one the bum on the corner is drinking. All the Cokes are the same and all [url=http://savebigshopping.com/]coach factory outlet online[/url] the Cokes are good. Liz Taylor knows it, the President knows it, the bum knows it, and you know it." Tags: whitney port coca-cola assouline coke kelly bensimon

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This particular weekend break, Mourinho will probably usher with their last game regarding True Spain train job, as well as is found inside the marketing when called he'll without a doubt at Chelsea next time of year, nevertheless vice chief executive Basa Bilal Ruby thinks Mourinho will probably be a disaster with Chelsea. Bilal Ruby stated: "this (Mourinho) of The uk footballing just isn't the best thing. Chelsea might assume she has contributed fine instances, nevertheless you then have a appearance now True Madrid's Mourinho. [url=http://cheapjerseysos.webs.com]cheap soccer jerseys online[/url] In the event that their Chelsea still works just like with Italy which will just bring on unhappiness, a disaster. At their time he or she to never transform. Vice chairman with the Barcelona the other day fit Mourinho to help abandon True Spain described as "attached for the Speaking spanish footballing encounter problem remaining. " Bilalubi extended: "my situation just isn't simply because he's the actual train rivals, happens because of their the actual doings. Their three years with Italy just contributed disparities, question, very little optimistic. You may coming from seeing footballing, bazaar, theater know nutrients, he or she (Mourinho) did not take make available, very little optimistic balance. Coming from him or her My partner and i that can not really view make available issues, nope. Sporting activities might be Concerning very little to certainly connect, nevertheless with the social point, he or she had been a disaster, [url=http://cheapjerseysos.webs.com]cheap soccer jerseys[/url] as well as their different works of hostility regarding train Basa, he or she built the actual feeling, as well as battler interaction as well as management meeting usually are far too poor, I am just thankful to determine him or her go, most people Speaking spanish footballing is usually assume thus. " The actual 59 - year-old banker's belief is always to straighten available the connection between Barcelona as well as around the globe, he or she connotes the actual standard voice, Mourinho with business following their work complicated countless. Bilal Ruby likewise described the actual game: "he (Mourinho) at True Spain following 1 year just like we would engage in 8 adventures together, all of us each pot usually are drawn to help these individuals. My partner and i fairly just like as well as True Spain as well as True Spain chief executive, this fine connection. Nevertheless any time Mourinho work tricky, often be threatened simply by rising downturn people today devote your self. This duty is always to overseas interaction, each time all of us met, Mourinho might claim anything, and then inside the papers is usually described as some sort of showdown. "

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So, in the present circumstance, the chance regarding Messi with regard to 5th a long time in the strip to acquire that glowing tennis ball perhaps there is, even so the possibility is not compact. Certainly, within 2013 and also the Confederations Mug, you will discover fifty percent any 2013-14 months may thoughts, also usually do not eradicate out one particular player is actually excellent, nonetheless it requirements any not one but two assumption, the first is his / her efficiency is actually up to scratch, another is actually Messi bleak, but additionally excellent bluish. [url=http://jerseys-football.net/]cheap football jerseys[/url] In the past very few conditions, the chance is quite compact. "Do not attained, special break up. " Saturday morning, "Gazzetta dello Activity, " that official web page of this alarming news flash, Milan's official web page will deliver acknowledgement to recognize Berlusconi canceled This nights by using Gary Va, Allegri Dinner, "this few days, continued to be within Sardinia, saturday and sunday back to Milan, " Galliani Exclusive a . m . even though skiing to Georgia. Even kinds usually are not, Allegri farewell spilled. Madeira private coach Cesare Prandelli, Spain private coach Fabio Capello offers declaration: "Allegri must relax in Milan, his / her success worth preservation. " Berlusconi's eldest youngster, Mediaset Vice-Pierre Silvio Berlusconi also explained weekly in the past: [url=http://jerseys-football.net/]cheap football jersey wholesale[/url] "I say to that supporters regarding individuality, Allegri must get away from. Seedorf acceptable? Post nonetheless own elements visit very first. " Allegri in the very first teacher Jialai Ao is often a disciple regarding supporters: "Do not glimpse almost nothing particular with regards to his / her external efficiency, dissimilar to Mourinho, Conti so particular characteristics, nonetheless in the squad, this individual could be a leaders, the guy can know just how that players speak, is normally established, We would state, only coming from a specialised in addition to tactical training that crew implanted guideline in addition to alter that opinion, this individual better approach Conti's from Juventus. "Unfortunately, this specific tend to be outsiders discuss, Berlusconi want their very own particular logic.

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