Горячие новости

Фирташ взвинчивает цену

Монопольный производитель удобрений — компания Дмитрия Фирташа Ostchem Ukraine приучает агрохолдинги к высоким ценам на удобрения в преддверии весенних закупок. Село как панацею ожидает российский товар, но это обманутые ожидания

Привычка антимонопольных органов Украины не видеть доминирующих производителей на рынке, вроде Дмитрия Фирташа, будет стоить аграриям немалых денег

Эра отложенного спроса на закупку удобрений в Украине, похоже, закончилась.

Очнувшись от регулирования рынка зерна после отмены пошлин крупные сельхозпроизводители — агрохолдинги начали проявлять интерес к массовым закупкам удобрений, но столкнулись с неумолимостью продавца — Ostchem Ukraine.

Он не желает уступать в цене и продает самый ходовой товар — аммиачную селитру крестьянам дешевле 3140 грн. за тонну. Эту позицию наблюдают и операторы рынка.

 «Еще шесть дней назад компания Дмитрия Фирташа реализовала селитру по 3070 грн. за тонну, вчера цена составила уже 3140 грн. за тонну. Тренд по повышению очевиден и не безоснователен»,— рассказал «і» представитель одной крупной трейдерской компании.

Впрочем, прайсы Ostchem Ukraine адекватны мировой цене на селитру, сложившейся на последнюю дату,— $327 за тонну.

Тем не менее неуступчивость украинской компании, которой принадлежит более 60% всех производимых в Украине удобрений, не понравилась некоторым аграриям.

 «Компания «Астарта» вышла на рынок с запросом купить 20 тыс. т аммиачной селитры, но предложения «Остхема» не устроили покупателя. Не исключена покупка импортного товара»,— говорит аналитик рынка удобрений Дмитрий Гордейчук. Он же утверждает, что начали расти продажи удобрений мелким и средним сельхозпроизводителям, в то время как агрохолдинги проявляют наибольший интерес и следят за конъюнктурой удобрений в мире.

Мир играет на руку химикам

А мировой рынок ничего хорошего селянам не предвещает, наоборот — вести оттуда должны стимулировать закупку удобрений именно сейчас.

 Если закупочная цена селитры на FOB, Черное море сейчас практически не увеличивается, не дают ей упасть другие азотные удобрения, которые продолжают дорожать.

Так, с 1 ноября экспортные пошлины на карбамид в Китае практически прекратили выход этого удобрения на мировые рынки. Китай вместе с Ближним Востоком и Египтом являются крупнейшими игроками на рынке карбамида. Следовательно, такие события не могут не оказать поддержку химикам.

Тем более что огласил свою готовность приобрести 100-120 тыс. тонн карбамида Таиланд, пострадавший от наводнения, в результате которого погибли 1,5 млн. га посевов риса. Таиландцы готовы закупить удобрение по цене $520 за тонну, в то время как цена мочевины в порту «Южном» составляет $490-500 за тонну. Эти новости в совокупности помогают карбамиду дорожать.

Существенное повышение цен мы увидим уже в середине ноября, считает Дмитрий Гордейчук.

Такой же устойчивый повышательный тренд наблюдается и в области продаж аммиака.

Северная Америка по-прежнему не может восстановить производство этого удобрения в связи с проблемой доставки газа из Тринидада и Тобаго. Это стимулирует рост спроса на аммиак с весны этого года — удобрение все время росло в цене, падений его цены не отмечалось, и, скорее всего, до конца года эта тенденция сохранится. Это дает основания прогнозировать дальнейший подъем цен.

 «С декабря удобрение можно будет купить уже по $705 за тонну»,— полагает господин Гордейчук.

Самые высокие цены на аммиак были отмечены в июле 2008 г. перед обвалом рынка — $800 за тонну. После этого они обвалились до $700 в октябре 2008 г. Очевидно, что цены на этот товар стремятся достичь максимальной кризисной точки, за которой последует обвал, опасаются игроки химического рынка. Когда наступит этот момент — остается загадкой, но все участники процесса понимают, что этот сценарий неизбежен.

Конкурентной селитры не будет

Естественно, на фоне общего роста цен на удобрения селитра в Украине не будет стоять на месте. Тем более что впереди самая капиталоемкая посевная — весенняя, а рынок удобрений монополизирован. Самое огорчительное для селян то, что им неоткуда ждать более дешевой альтернативы — дешевой российской селитры не будет, уверяют такие же огорченные трейдеры.

 «В частности, компания «Уралхим» сообщает о готовности поставлять в Украину аммиачную селитру по цене не ниже $320 плюс импортная пошлина, которую никто не отменял. Получается, что на отечественном рынке импортный аналог можно будет купить не дешевле 3400 грн. за тонну!» — разочарованно говорит оператор другой трейдинговой компании.

 Он же сообщил о том, что российские химики не будут конкурировать с компанией господина Фирташа. «Они сказали, что дождутся наивысших внутренних цен, и лишь затем выйдут на наш рынок»,— сказал оператор/

 Таким образом, аграриям нечего ждать — закупки надо производить именно сейчас.

Наталья Кабаш, «Экономические известия»

Комментарии

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